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"percentile": 85.71428571428571, "rank": 3, "toss": [ "2C", "3D" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.13, "handAvg": 8.217391304347826, "handMax": 13, "handMin": 5, "keep": [ "2C", "3D", "4H", "JD" ], "netEv": 12.347391304347827, "percentile": 78.57142857142857, "rank": 4, "toss": [ "10S", "QC" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.15, "handAvg": 7.108695652173913, "handMax": 11, "handMin": 4, "keep": [ "2C", "3D", "JD", "QC" ], "netEv": 11.258695652173913, "percentile": 71.42857142857143, "rank": 5, "toss": [ "4H", "10S" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.05, "handAvg": 7.108695652173913, "handMax": 11, "handMin": 4, "keep": [ "2C", "3D", "10S", "JD" ], "netEv": 11.158695652173913, "percentile": 64.28571428571429, "rank": 6, "toss": [ "4H", "QC" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.39, "handAvg": 6.608695652173913, "handMax": 10, "handMin": 4, "keep": [ "2C", "3D", "10S", "QC" ], "netEv": 10.998695652173913, "percentile": 57.142857142857146, "rank": 7, "toss": [ "4H", "JD" ] }, { "cribAvg": 5.51, "handAvg": 5.434782608695652, "handMax": 10, "handMin": 3, "keep": [ "2C", "10S", "JD", "QC" ], "netEv": 10.944782608695652, "percentile": 50, "rank": 8, "toss": [ "3D", "4H" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.85, "handAvg": 5.434782608695652, "handMax": 10, "handMin": 3, "keep": [ "3D", "10S", "JD", "QC" ], "netEv": 10.284782608695652, "percentile": 42.857142857142854, "rank": 9, "toss": [ "2C", "4H" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.06, "handAvg": 2.8043478260869565, "handMax": 8, "handMin": 0, "keep": [ "3D", "4H", "JD", "QC" ], "netEv": 6.864347826086956, "percentile": 35.714285714285715, "rank": 10, "toss": [ "2C", "10S" ] }, { "cribAvg": 3.93, "handAvg": 2.8043478260869565, "handMax": 8, "handMin": 0, "keep": [ "3D", "4H", "10S", "JD" ], "netEv": 6.734347826086957, "percentile": 28.571428571428573, "rank": 11, "toss": [ "2C", "QC" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.19, "handAvg": 2.5434782608695654, "handMax": 7, "handMin": 0, "keep": [ "2C", "4H", "JD", "QC" ], "netEv": 6.733478260869566, "percentile": 21.428571428571427, "rank": 12, "toss": [ "3D", "10S" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.3, "handAvg": 2.3043478260869565, "handMax": 7, "handMin": 0, "keep": [ "3D", "4H", "10S", "QC" ], "netEv": 6.604347826086956, "percentile": 14.285714285714286, "rank": 13, "toss": [ "2C", "JD" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.03, "handAvg": 2.5434782608695654, "handMax": 7, "handMin": 0, "keep": [ "2C", "4H", "10S", "JD" ], "netEv": 6.573478260869566, "percentile": 7.142857142857143, "rank": 14, "toss": [ "3D", "QC" ] }, { "cribAvg": 4.39, "handAvg": 2.0434782608695654, "handMax": 7, "handMin": 0, "keep": [ "2C", "4H", "10S", "QC" ], "netEv": 6.433478260869565, "percentile": 0, "rank": 15, "toss": [ "3D", "JD" ] } ], "question": "Low cards that peg against ten-cards that count." } ], "layouts24": [ { "count": 20, "ranks": "3-3-3-3-9" }, { "count": 20, "ranks": "3-6-6-6-6" }, { "count": 20, "ranks": "4-4-4-4-7" }, { "count": 720, "ranks": "4-4-5-5-6" }, { "count": 720, "ranks": "4-4-5-6-6" }, { "count": 720, "ranks": "4-5-5-6-6" }, { "count": 720, "ranks": "6-7-7-8-8" }, { "count": 720, "ranks": "7-7-8-8-9" }, { "count": 20, "ranks": "A-7-7-7-7" } ], "meta": { "engineCodeSha256": "d515ca26f37fce29b4348c77ee5f8108427104775f99ad9a9f58808b13e99399", "generator": "scripts/odds/generate-odds.mjs", "simulation": { "baseSeed": 1000003, "ci95Method": "wilson-score", "games": 25000, "profile": "onyx", "strategyStats": true }, "spaces": { "handStarter": 12994800, "keeps": 270725 } }, "rarity": { "perfect29": { "fiveCardDeal": { "assumption": "a random five-card deal, keeping the best four", "count": 4, "oneIn": { "den": 4, "display": "1 in 649,740", "num": 2598960 }, "space": 2598960 }, "randomKeepAndCut": { "assumption": "a random four-card keep and a random starter", "count": 4, "oneIn": { "den": 4, "display": "1 in 3,248,700", "num": 12994800 }, "space": 12994800 }, "sixCardDeal": { "assumption": "a random six-card deal, always keeping three fives and the jack matching the missing five, with that five outside the deal", "derivation": { "qualifyingDeals": 4324, "sixCardDeals": 20358520, "unseenCards": 46 }, "oneIn": { "den": 4324, "display": "1 in 216,580", "num": 936491920 }, "rederived": true, "source": "acc", "value": 216580 } }, "twentyEight": { "assumption": "a random four-card keep and a random starter", "count": 76, "oneIn": { "den": 76, "display": "1 in 170,984.2", "num": 12994800 }, "sixCardDeal": { "assumption": "a random six-card deal, preserving a keep that can make 28 but prioritizing a possible 29 when the jack matching the missing five is dealt", "derivation": { "fourFives": 17296, "qualifyingCases": 62316, "sixCardDeals": 20358520, "threeFivesPlusTen": 45020, "unseenCards": 46 }, "oneIn": { "den": 62316, "display": "1 in 15,028", "num": 936491920 }, "ratioTo29": 14.4, "rederived": true, "source": "acc", "value": 15028 }, "space": 12994800 } }, "simulation": { "byDeal": { "deals": [ { "deal": 1, "ended": 0, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 16.3705, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 4.7668, "hand": 8.0221, "heels": 0.1563, "pegging": 3.4253 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 10.333, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 8.1422, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.1908 } }, "n": 25000 }, { "deal": 2, "ended": 0, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 26.7712, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 8.1602, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.2406 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 26.6044, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 4.7294, "hand": 8.0392, "heels": 0.151, "pegging": 3.3518 } }, "n": 25000 }, { "deal": 3, "ended": 0, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 43.1386, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 4.7853, "hand": 8.0305, "heels": 0.1557, "pegging": 3.3959 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 36.9761, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 8.1643, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.2074 } }, "n": 25000 }, { "deal": 4, "ended": 0, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 53.5167, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 8.1447, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.2334 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 53.2531, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 4.6895, "hand": 8.0422, "heels": 0.1626, "pegging": 3.3827 } }, "n": 25000 }, { "deal": 5, "ended": 2, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 69.8062, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 4.7371, "hand": 8.0437, "heels": 0.1454, "pegging": 3.3632 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 63.588, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 8.1308, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.2041 } }, "n": 25000 }, { "deal": 6, "ended": 57, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 80.146, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 8.1096, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.2324 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 79.8221, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 4.7259, "hand": 8.0242, "heels": 0.1528, "pegging": 3.3347 } }, "n": 24998 }, { "deal": 7, "ended": 1224, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 96.0265, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 4.5554, "hand": 7.8772, "heels": 0.1539, "pegging": 3.3704 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 90.0725, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 8.0916, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.1882 } }, "n": 24941 }, { "deal": 8, "ended": 5883, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 104.8001, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 7.5581, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.1431 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 103.5801, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 3.7582, "hand": 6.7733, "heels": 0.1558, "pegging": 3.2773 } }, "n": 23717 }, { "deal": 9, "ended": 11032, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 112.5633, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 2.1202, "hand": 4.7443, "heels": 0.1501, "pegging": 3.146 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 110.687, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 6.4042, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.0102 } }, "n": 17834 }, { "deal": 10, "ended": 5718, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 116.032, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 4.6088, "heels": 0, "pegging": 1.8637 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 114.0059, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0.986, "hand": 2.5519, "heels": 0.1517, "pegging": 2.857 } }, "n": 6802 }, { "deal": 11, "ended": 1035, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 116.3395, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0.3736, "hand": 1.2472, "heels": 0.155, "pegging": 2.5341 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 117.4862, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 3.1817, "heels": 0, "pegging": 1.7592 } }, "n": 1084 }, { "deal": 12, "ended": 48, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 118.5714, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 2.1633, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.2041 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 116.5714, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0.1224, "hand": 0.8571, "heels": 0.1633, "pegging": 2.2653 } }, "n": 49 }, { "deal": 13, "ended": 1, "firstDealer": { "cumulative": 121, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 0, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2 } }, "firstPone": { "cumulative": 120, "pointsInDeal": { "crib": 0, "hand": 0, "heels": 0, "pegging": 0 } }, "n": 1 } ], "note": "Bot-versus-bot play. Roles are fixed for the whole game: firstDealer dealt deal 1, firstPone did not. Means are over the n games that reached the deal, and cumulative is the board score at the end of it, so a winner reads 121 rather than the raw total the log wanted to award." }, "doubleSkunkRate": { "ci95": [ 0.0009, 0.0018 ], "n": 25000, "rate": 0.0012, "successes": 31 }, "empiricalCrib": { "note": "What ONYX actually collected, not what a random discard is worth. The bots choose their discards, so the cells are wildly uneven: read every mean next to its observation count, and prefer discardEv.model for anything the page states as a general fact.", "opponent": [ { "mean": 6.0387, "observations": 413, "pair": "10-10" }, { "mean": 5.6373, "observations": 1384, "pair": "10-J" }, { "mean": 3.9199, "observations": 8641, "pair": "10-K" }, { "mean": 4.5892, "observations": 3659, "pair": "10-Q" }, { "mean": 4.5331, "observations": 2266, "pair": "2-10" }, { "mean": 6.3275, "observations": 461, "pair": "2-2" }, { "mean": 6.8717, "observations": 538, "pair": "2-3" }, { "mean": 5.324, "observations": 1867, "pair": "2-4" }, { "mean": 6.1884, "observations": 414, "pair": "2-5" }, { "mean": 5.1029, "observations": 1943, "pair": "2-6" }, { "mean": 5.0568, "observations": 3290, "pair": "2-7" }, { "mean": 4.8827, "observations": 3315, "pair": "2-8" }, { "mean": 4.6344, "observations": 3118, "pair": "2-9" }, { "mean": 4.8266, "observations": 1799, "pair": "2-J" }, { "mean": 4.315, "observations": 3517, "pair": "2-K" }, { "mean": 4.438, "observations": 3240, "pair": "2-Q" }, { "mean": 4.5301, "observations": 2111, "pair": "3-10" }, { "mean": 6.6176, "observations": 340, "pair": "3-3" }, { "mean": 5.8901, "observations": 1101, "pair": "3-4" }, { "mean": 6.8807, "observations": 176, "pair": "3-5" }, { "mean": 4.9126, "observations": 2358, "pair": "3-6" }, { "mean": 4.9587, "observations": 2133, "pair": "3-7" }, { "mean": 4.9856, "observations": 2782, "pair": "3-8" }, { "mean": 4.6411, "observations": 2499, "pair": "3-9" }, { "mean": 4.8854, "observations": 1701, "pair": "3-J" }, { "mean": 4.3213, "observations": 3119, "pair": "3-K" }, { "mean": 4.3821, "observations": 2787, "pair": "3-Q" }, { "mean": 4.3152, "observations": 2186, "pair": "4-10" }, { "mean": 6.3129, "observations": 294, "pair": "4-4" }, { "mean": 7.4338, "observations": 136, "pair": "4-5" }, { "mean": 5.5617, "observations": 616, "pair": "4-6" }, { "mean": 4.8817, "observations": 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"mean": 5.614, "observations": 2122, "pair": "4-4" }, { "mean": 6.4966, "observations": 1305, "pair": "4-5" }, { "mean": 3.8324, "observations": 1569, "pair": "4-6" }, { "mean": 3.7367, "observations": 1371, "pair": "4-7" }, { "mean": 3.7599, "observations": 1187, "pair": "4-8" }, { "mean": 3.538, "observations": 803, "pair": "4-9" }, { "mean": 3.8382, "observations": 958, "pair": "4-J" }, { "mean": 3.6083, "observations": 1284, "pair": "4-K" }, { "mean": 3.5938, "observations": 1103, "pair": "4-Q" }, { "mean": 6.6326, "observations": 2880, "pair": "5-10" }, { "mean": 8.8805, "observations": 1489, "pair": "5-5" }, { "mean": 6.7253, "observations": 1733, "pair": "5-6" }, { "mean": 6.1454, "observations": 2043, "pair": "5-7" }, { "mean": 5.6003, "observations": 1401, "pair": "5-8" }, { "mean": 5.337, "observations": 1077, "pair": "5-9" }, { "mean": 6.9374, "observations": 3100, "pair": "5-J" }, { "mean": 6.6976, "observations": 2867, "pair": "5-K" }, { "mean": 6.656, "observations": 3419, "pair": "5-Q" }, { "mean": 3.0426, "observations": 1243, "pair": "6-10" }, { "mean": 5.7404, "observations": 2592, "pair": "6-6" }, { "mean": 4.961, "observations": 5437, "pair": "6-7" }, { "mean": 4.6981, "observations": 5290, "pair": "6-8" }, { "mean": 5.0977, "observations": 5310, "pair": "6-9" }, { "mean": 3.4756, "observations": 1026, "pair": "6-J" }, { "mean": 3.1064, "observations": 912, "pair": "6-K" }, { "mean": 3.1041, "observations": 845, "pair": "6-Q" }, { "mean": 3.1789, "observations": 1358, "pair": "7-10" }, { "mean": 6.1207, "observations": 3024, "pair": "7-7" }, { "mean": 6.6313, "observations": 8160, "pair": "7-8" }, { "mean": 4.1164, "observations": 4313, "pair": "7-9" }, { "mean": 3.4522, "observations": 1161, "pair": "7-J" }, { "mean": 3.1426, "observations": 1052, "pair": "7-K" }, { "mean": 3.2259, "observations": 934, "pair": "7-Q" }, { "mean": 3.9081, "observations": 2394, "pair": "8-10" }, { "mean": 5.5409, "observations": 2845, "pair": "8-8" }, { "mean": 4.8146, "observations": 4720, "pair": "8-9" }, { "mean": 3.6037, "observations": 1085, "pair": "8-J" }, { "mean": 3.2919, "observations": 853, "pair": "8-K" }, { "mean": 3.2154, "observations": 947, "pair": "8-Q" }, { "mean": 4.2727, "observations": 3374, "pair": "9-10" }, { "mean": 5.1238, "observations": 2456, "pair": "9-9" }, { "mean": 3.7756, "observations": 1649, "pair": "9-J" }, { "mean": 3.0673, "observations": 891, "pair": "9-K" }, { "mean": 2.9609, "observations": 920, "pair": "9-Q" }, { "mean": 3.3141, "observations": 1350, "pair": "A-10" }, { "mean": 4.0923, "observations": 3759, "pair": "A-2" }, { "mean": 4.3071, "observations": 3895, "pair": "A-3" }, { "mean": 5.3624, "observations": 2828, "pair": "A-4" }, { "mean": 5.6022, "observations": 729, "pair": "A-5" }, { "mean": 3.888, "observations": 1330, "pair": "A-6" }, { "mean": 3.8022, "observations": 1871, "pair": "A-7" }, { "mean": 3.7621, "observations": 1896, "pair": "A-8" }, { "mean": 3.3829, "observations": 1669, "pair": "A-9" }, { "mean": 5.1184, "observations": 2128, "pair": "A-A" }, { "mean": 3.5007, "observations": 1366, "pair": "A-J" }, { "mean": 3.2542, "observations": 1428, "pair": "A-K" }, { "mean": 3.3936, "observations": 1354, "pair": "A-Q" }, { "mean": 5.2862, "observations": 1890, "pair": "J-J" }, { "mean": 4.0671, "observations": 3741, "pair": "J-K" }, { "mean": 4.9591, "observations": 4455, "pair": "J-Q" }, { "mean": 4.6743, "observations": 2278, "pair": "K-K" }, { "mean": 3.4835, "observations": 4641, "pair": "Q-K" }, { "mean": 4.6341, "observations": 2214, "pair": "Q-Q" } ] }, "firstDealerWinRate": { "ci95": [ 0.5578, 0.5701 ], "n": 25000, "rate": 0.564, "successes": 14100 }, "games": 25000, "handsPerGame": [ { "count": 2, "value": 5 }, { "count": 57, "value": 6 }, { "count": 1224, "value": 7 }, { "count": 5883, "value": 8 }, { "count": 11032, "value": 9 }, { "count": 5718, "value": 10 }, { "count": 1035, "value": 11 }, { "count": 48, "value": 12 }, { "count": 1, "value": 13 } ], "handsPlayed": 224426, "leads": { "dealsWithLead": 224294, "dealsWithoutLead": 132, "note": "The opening lead is the first card the pone plays in a deal, and every mean is over the whole deal that followed it, not just the first exchange. Policy-conditioned like empiricalCrib: ONYX chooses these leads, so a rank is described by the positions ONYX leads it from. replyScored is the share of deals where the dealer's answering card scored anything at all.", "ranks": [ { "dealerPegging": 2.9997, "n": 11280, "net": -0.6702, "ponePegging": 2.3295, "rank": "A", "replyScored": 0.1613 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.0468, "n": 17400, "net": -0.7382, "ponePegging": 2.3086, "rank": "2", "replyScored": 0.1636 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.0111, "n": 24398, "net": -0.5739, "ponePegging": 2.4372, "rank": "3", "replyScored": 0.177 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.1739, "n": 37373, "net": -0.9514, "ponePegging": 2.2225, "rank": "4", "replyScored": 0.2184 }, { "dealerPegging": 4.2442, "n": 1167, "net": -2.4833, "ponePegging": 1.7609, "rank": "5", "replyScored": 0.7147 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.3733, "n": 10674, "net": -1.3122, "ponePegging": 2.0611, "rank": "6", "replyScored": 0.3378 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.3908, "n": 10918, "net": -1.2085, "ponePegging": 2.1823, "rank": "7", "replyScored": 0.2747 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.4326, "n": 14100, "net": -1.4075, "ponePegging": 2.0251, "rank": "8", "replyScored": 0.2735 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.4818, "n": 16013, "net": -1.5253, "ponePegging": 1.9565, "rank": "9", "replyScored": 0.339 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.5313, "n": 22517, "net": -1.4597, "ponePegging": 2.0716, "rank": "10", "replyScored": 0.394 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.5091, "n": 24806, "net": -1.3816, "ponePegging": 2.1275, "rank": "J", "replyScored": 0.3949 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.54, "n": 18727, "net": -1.3877, "ponePegging": 2.1523, "rank": "Q", "replyScored": 0.3868 }, { "dealerPegging": 3.5252, "n": 14921, "net": -1.3675, "ponePegging": 2.1577, "rank": "K", "replyScored": 0.3785 } ] }, "peggingPerHand": { "dealer": [ { "count": 1167, "value": 0 }, { "count": 47738, "value": 1 }, { "count": 37301, "value": 2 }, { "count": 53141, "value": 3 }, { "count": 32265, "value": 4 }, { "count": 24263, "value": 5 }, { "count": 10852, "value": 6 }, { "count": 7809, "value": 7 }, { "count": 3626, "value": 8 }, { "count": 2840, "value": 9 }, { "count": 1618, "value": 10 }, { "count": 619, "value": 11 }, { "count": 403, "value": 12 }, { "count": 118, "value": 13 }, { "count": 71, "value": 14 }, { "count": 282, "value": 15 }, { "count": 100, "value": 16 }, { "count": 102, "value": 17 }, { "count": 59, "value": 18 }, { "count": 16, "value": 19 }, { "count": 15, "value": 20 }, { "count": 13, "value": 21 }, { "count": 4, "value": 22 }, { "count": 2, "value": 23 }, { "count": 1, "value": 24 }, { "count": 1, "value": 26 } ], "pone": [ { "count": 49849, "value": 0 }, { "count": 54929, "value": 1 }, { "count": 43042, "value": 2 }, { "count": 32661, "value": 3 }, { "count": 17042, "value": 4 }, { "count": 6128, "value": 5 }, { "count": 8203, "value": 6 }, { "count": 5648, "value": 7 }, { "count": 3358, "value": 8 }, { "count": 1846, "value": 9 }, { "count": 1152, "value": 10 }, { "count": 265, "value": 11 }, { "count": 88, "value": 12 }, { "count": 57, "value": 13 }, { "count": 44, "value": 14 }, { "count": 71, "value": 15 }, { "count": 23, "value": 16 }, { "count": 18, "value": 17 }, { "count": 1, "value": 18 }, { "count": 1, "value": 20 } ] }, "pointsPerHand": { "dealer": { "crib": 4.271, "hand": 7.4211, "heels": 0.1538, "pegging": 3.3264 }, "note": "Points per hand played, counting the last hand of each game even though it may have been cut short by the win. Both roles divide by the same hand count.", "pone": { "crib": 0, "hand": 7.8042, "heels": 0, "pegging": 2.1774 } }, "positionWinRate": { "bands": { "five": [ "<=-30", "-29..-25", "-24..-20", "-19..-15", "-14..-10", "-9..-5", "-4..-1", "+0..+4", "+5..+9", "+10..+14", "+15..+19", "+20..+24", "+25..+29", ">=+30" ], "ten": [ "<=-30", "-29..-20", "-19..-10", "-9..-1", "+0..+9", "+10..+19", "+20..+29", ">=+30" ] }, "byStreet": { "s1|+0..+9": { "ci95": [ 0.5788, 0.5889 ], "dealerWins": 21176, "n": 36270, "rate": 0.5838 }, "s1|+10..+19": { "ci95": [ 0.7662, 0.8133 ], "dealerWins": 903, "n": 1142, "rate": 0.7907 }, "s1|+20..+29": { "ci95": [ 0.7847, 1 ], "dealerWins": 14, "n": 14, "rate": 1 }, "s1|-19..-10": { "ci95": [ 0.2809, 0.2969 ], "dealerWins": 3564, "n": 12341, "rate": 0.2888 }, "s1|-29..-20": { "ci95": [ 0.1123, 0.1378 ], "dealerWins": 320, "n": 2570, "rate": 0.1245 }, "s1|-9..-1": { "ci95": [ 0.4521, 0.4657 ], "dealerWins": 9521, "n": 20749, "rate": 0.4589 }, "s1|<=-30": { "ci95": [ 0.0124, 0.0373 ], "dealerWins": 12, "n": 556, "rate": 0.0216 }, "s2|+0..+9": { "ci95": [ 0.6598, 0.6751 ], "dealerWins": 9715, "n": 14554, "rate": 0.6675 }, "s2|+10..+19": { "ci95": [ 0.8252, 0.8429 ], "dealerWins": 5660, "n": 6785, "rate": 0.8342 }, "s2|+20..+29": { "ci95": [ 0.9104, 0.9415 ], "dealerWins": 998, "n": 1076, "rate": 0.9275 }, "s2|-19..-10": { "ci95": [ 0.234, 0.2495 ], "dealerWins": 2810, "n": 11628, "rate": 0.2417 }, "s2|-29..-20": { "ci95": [ 0.0743, 0.0888 ], "dealerWins": 442, "n": 5441, "rate": 0.0812 }, "s2|-9..-1": { "ci95": [ 0.4384, 0.4544 ], "dealerWins": 6680, "n": 14965, "rate": 0.4464 }, "s2|<=-30": { "ci95": [ 0.0121, 0.0228 ], "dealerWins": 37, "n": 2227, "rate": 0.0166 }, "s2|>=+30": { "ci95": [ 0.91, 0.997 ], "dealerWins": 58, "n": 59, "rate": 0.9831 }, "s3|+0..+9": { "ci95": [ 0.683, 0.6994 ], "dealerWins": 8422, "n": 12184, "rate": 0.6912 }, "s3|+10..+19": { "ci95": [ 0.8812, 0.8952 ], "dealerWins": 6948, "n": 7821, "rate": 0.8884 }, "s3|+20..+29": { "ci95": [ 0.9577, 0.9706 ], "dealerWins": 3008, "n": 3118, "rate": 0.9647 }, "s3|-19..-10": { "ci95": [ 0.1776, 0.1926 ], "dealerWins": 1909, "n": 10321, "rate": 0.185 }, "s3|-29..-20": { "ci95": [ 0.0357, 0.0455 ], "dealerWins": 247, "n": 6130, "rate": 0.0403 }, "s3|-9..-1": { "ci95": [ 0.4213, 0.4392 ], "dealerWins": 5036, "n": 11705, "rate": 0.4302 }, "s3|<=-30": { "ci95": [ 0.0005, 0.0033 ], "dealerWins": 4, "n": 3095, "rate": 0.0013 }, "s3|>=+30": { "ci95": [ 0.9848, 0.9977 ], "dealerWins": 670, "n": 674, "rate": 0.9941 }, "s4|+0..+9": { "ci95": [ 0.7505, 0.7669 ], "dealerWins": 8009, "n": 10555, "rate": 0.7588 }, "s4|+10..+19": { "ci95": [ 0.9488, 0.9581 ], "dealerWins": 7415, "n": 7775, "rate": 0.9537 }, "s4|+20..+29": { "ci95": [ 0.9861, 0.9924 ], "dealerWins": 4039, "n": 4081, "rate": 0.9897 }, "s4|-19..-10": { "ci95": [ 0.1235, 0.1423 ], "dealerWins": 662, "n": 4992, "rate": 0.1326 }, "s4|-29..-20": { "ci95": [ 0.0056, 0.0169 ], "dealerWins": 12, "n": 1234, "rate": 0.0097 }, "s4|-9..-1": { "ci95": [ 0.3901, 0.4109 ], "dealerWins": 3413, "n": 8522, "rate": 0.4005 }, "s4|>=+30": { "ci95": [ 0.9969, 0.9999 ], "dealerWins": 1841, "n": 1842, "rate": 0.9995 } }, "fourthStreet": { "+0..+4": { "ci95": [ 0.665, 0.6898 ], "dealerWins": 3695, "n": 5454, "rate": 0.6775 }, "+10..+14": { "ci95": [ 0.9322, 0.9465 ], "dealerWins": 4024, "n": 4282, "rate": 0.9397 }, "+15..+19": { "ci95": [ 0.9647, 0.9759 ], "dealerWins": 3391, "n": 3493, "rate": 0.9708 }, "+20..+24": { "ci95": [ 0.981, 0.9903 ], "dealerWins": 2400, "n": 2433, "rate": 0.9864 }, "+25..+29": { "ci95": [ 0.9897, 0.9971 ], "dealerWins": 1639, "n": 1648, "rate": 0.9945 }, "+5..+9": { "ci95": [ 0.8355, 0.8554 ], "dealerWins": 4314, "n": 5101, "rate": 0.8457 }, "-14..-10": { "ci95": [ 0.1622, 0.1891 ], "dealerWins": 536, "n": 3059, "rate": 0.1752 }, "-19..-15": { "ci95": [ 0.055, 0.0771 ], "dealerWins": 126, "n": 1933, "rate": 0.0652 }, "-24..-20": { "ci95": [ 0.0072, 0.0218 ], "dealerWins": 12, "n": 957, "rate": 0.0125 }, "-29..-25": { "ci95": [ 0, 0.0137 ], "dealerWins": 0, "n": 277, "rate": 0 }, "-4..-1": { "ci95": [ 0.4767, 0.507 ], "dealerWins": 2052, "n": 4172, "rate": 0.4919 }, "-9..-5": { "ci95": [ 0.2993, 0.3268 ], "dealerWins": 1361, "n": 4350, "rate": 0.3129 }, ">=+30": { "ci95": [ 0.9969, 0.9999 ], "dealerWins": 1841, "n": 1842, "rate": 0.9995 } }, "note": "One row per deal, taken before the deal was played: the dealer of that deal, his lead over the pone, and whether he went on to win. byStreet keys are s{street}|{band} over the dealer's own score (1: 0-30, 2: 31-60, 3: 61-90, 4: 91-120); fourthStreet is the same deals as street 4, cut into five-point bands. Bands pool everything past thirty either way and are listed in order in bands. Bot-versus-bot, and the outer cells are thin: read every rate next to its n." }, "skunkRate": { "ci95": [ 0.1338, 0.1424 ], "n": 25000, "rate": 0.138, "successes": 3451 }, "truncation": { "count": 12892, "method": "the winner's raw log total exceeded 121, so the winning item was clamped", "terminalSource": [ { "count": 4606, "source": "crib" }, { "count": 15284, "source": "hand" }, { "count": 132, "source": "heels" }, { "count": 4978, "source": "pegging" } ] } } }